Recently some ESPN guys discussed the prospects of Boise State going to the college football National Championship game. Here, I will discuss my own predictions.
First of all, I am biased. I love BSU football and their coach Chris Petersen. The way they play football epitomizes what the sport is all about.
The main difficulty for BSU is their opener at Virginia Tech. Tech is bringing back most of thier team, led by QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is a great talent, but was very underdeveloped last year. We have no idea how he'll look in the BSU game. This game is a virtual home game for Tech, as it is played near their stadium.
I have no idea whether BSU will win or not, but they certainly are capable. They have proven that. If I had to bet, I would predict that they will win. The reason is because Virginia Tech has always struggled in big games. Frank Beamer took this team from mediocrity to perennial contenders, but they have never gotten over merely contending to actually winning. BSU on the other hand, is a perennial winner. BSU throws weird things at their opponents, they are highly disciplined and they play with more heart than any team I've ever seen. I simply cannot wait for this game.
If BSU loses, the conversation is over.
If BSU wins, they become serious National Championship contenders. However, the road is far from over.
First, after Tech, they have Wyoming. In the last few years, Wyoming has gone from a lousy team that did not have a serious program, to being mediocre team, that can actually win some games. I've even heard one expert predict they will beat Texas this year. I don't think Wyoming is quite there yet, but they do have a great coach, who is running a system based in Missouri's system. It is designed to give you quarterback some extra time to make decisions. If you have a great quarterback, it works well. The experts say Wyoming has one. However, I see Boise beating Wyoming.
The really overlooked game is BSU's next game against Oregon State. Oregon State is a perennial contender for the Pac 10 title, and has all thier important weapons coming back. I could seriously see BSU beating Tech, then Wyoming, and dropping this game to OSU. This would remind us of BYU beating Oklahoma last year, before getting embarrassed by a mediocre Florida State team. However, I could EASILY see BSU running the table, having beaten both the ACC and Pac 10 champion.
There are big differences between BSU and BYU. Mainly BSU has a recent history of success and expectations. BYU had neither last year.
However, ultimately, if BSU can win these 3 games, it will defeat the oft-repeated argument against their candidacy for the National Championship: that they don't have to slug through a long schedule of BCS conference teams. This 3 week period, combined with a schedule that includes some tough WAC opponents, combined with their recent history--justifies a National Championship shot. After that, BSU needs luck. They need other teams to lose, who will always get picked ahead of them.
I wish them luck...for the sake of all lovers of college football.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Tom Dienhart "Best Coaches" Responce
Tom Dienhart has recently written an article naming his top coaches.
I thought this article was so ridiculous, that I had to respond with a listing of my own. I can agree with the Urban Meyer ranking at number 1, but has he done it with his own recruits yet? No. Pete Carroll has and that is why he is number 1. It is really a shame that they did not face eachother last year.
Dienhart says “nobody can match Bob Stoops four BCS appearances.” This is absurd…Jim Tressel has been in 7 national championship games, with 3 BCS National Championship appearances…that matches it in my book. Not to mention Joe Paterno’s record matches it, which is discussed below.
Next, he puts Nick Saban at number 3. My comments on Saban are below. He has done nothing to justify a ranking higher than 8 for me. Dienhart’s selection of Kirk Ferentz (Iowa), Jim Grobe (Wake Forest) and Brian Kelly (Cincinnati) show that he is short sighted analyzing accomplishments. The Ferentz pick is particularly confusing, considering that Maine and Iowa have been merely mediocre at best under his term. Ferentz's one good season in 2002 was spoiled by ugly losses at Iowa State and a drubbing by USC in the Orange bowl. Then he put Chris Petersen, the most accomplished mid-major coach in the country - at 29. Baffling.
And his selection of putting Rich Rodriguez two spots over Jim Tressel is so ludicrous, that it is hardly worth addressing - but I will. Rodriguez was very good at West Virginia. However, unlike Tressel's team, Rodriguez's teams have never been able to get over the hump. West Virginia's loss to Pitt in 2007 was one of the most embarrassing failures to get over the hump that I have ever seen. In the most important game in school history, West Virginia lost to an inferior team that was playing with backups at key positions. After going on to beat a superior team in Oklahoma, the loss can only be blamed on coaching. Overcoming that one or two critical losses has always been something Rodriguez's teams have not been able to do. Futhermore, posting the worst season in Michigan's 150 year history did not look to good either. The inability to conform system to talent is something that is not a vice of Tressel's - as demonstrated by his spread offense of 2006.
I can only say, with all due respect, that I don't understand his rankings.
My Rankings:
My rankings are based upon 3 main factors, plus a few minor factors. First, is flat out winning across the board. This is mainly where I consider the entirety of a coach’s “body of work.” However, wins in college football can be misleading sometimes, because a team like USC or Oklahoma will beat 90% of the teams it faces based purely on talent. So that brings us to the second factor: winning against teams that can beat you. This includes mainly bowl games and rivalry games. I also take or give credit based on the consistent quality of performance regardless of wins or losses. Next, I adjust for the program support - a job at USC is inevitably easier to win with than Iowa. Lastly, is potential – i.e., who would you hire right now, to take over a sputtering program? Minor factors include, who has a consistently tough schedule, who can sustain that development for a long period of time with his own recruits, who can live up to or exceed expectations, and who can recruit.
My first tier is made up of coaches who are arguably the best in the nation. The second tier is made up of coaches, for whom, the argument for "best in the nation" is just too weak when compared with the first tier. The third tier is for coaches who are good, but on the verge of becoming great. The honorable mention is for coaches who simply deserve credit for what they have done.
First Tier:
1. Pete Carroll (USC)
Nobody compares to Pete Carroll right now. He just wins. In recruiting, he has been riding on his own coattails for years. He only loses recruits who feel they cannot beat the competition for a starting spot on the team. Otherwise, all players on the west coast go to Pete Carroll. He has coached several top-end teams that dominated, including an ’08 defense that may have been the best defense ever.
The main critique is that he coaches in a very weak Pac 10 Conference. However, this argument is moot, because even when he plays outside the Pac 10, he continues to win. The other critique is that USC has lost to one team it should have beat every year for three years now (UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State respectively). Losing to these kinds of inferior teams is a black mark that neither Urban Meyer, nor Jim Tressel have on their record. Each game cost USC a shot at the National Championship. The only retort is that his teams were incredible despite these losses, and almost any team would love to have three one-loss seasons.
His domination of the Big Ten in recent years has been obscene.
Tressell fans cannot complain about the superior ranking of Caroll, because Caroll's USC just blew out Tressel's OSU last year. Meyer fans cant complain because Meyer's success has not been as sustained as Carroll's, although it soon may be.
2. Urban Meyer (Florida)
Meyer was very good at Bowling Green. He then won the MWC in both of his years at Utah and went undefeated winning the Fiesta Bowl in the second season. Then he comes to Florida and wins two national championships in three years. The ’06 championship included a total domination of a one of the great Ohio State teams that had beat two #2 teams that season. He only is ranked higher than Jim Tressel because of this game, because his entire body of work is not really as deep as Tressel’s.
One might argue that Meyer should not be higher than Tressel by virtue of one game – however, this was more than a game. Tressel had one of the great teams in college history. He was capping off an incredible season and was expected to blow out Florida. Meyer beat him with a merely good team that was lucky to be in the Championship given that Michigan had a better body of work that season but may have only excluded because nobody wanted an OSU/Michigan National Championship.
Arguably, Meyer coaches in a tougher all around conference, although such statements are often extremely overstated. Another point: Meyer has never completely rebuilt a team on his own. This last challenge is what he needs to really complete his body of work. However, there is no doubt in my mind that he can do this. He will continue to compete for years, even in the tough SEC.
3. Jim Tressel (Ohio State)
Probably the best overall body of work of any coach is Tressel’s. However, he does not have any top-end, “best in history” type teams that Pete Carroll has. A horrible loss to Urban Meyer’s Florida in the ’06 National Championship costs him that one shot at such a team.
He has dominated the Big Ten. He has coached two 19 game winning streaks. He has been in National Championship games an unmatched 7 times (4 at Youngstown State and 3 at OSU). He won 5 of those games. He beat OSU’s rival Michigan 7 out of 8 games. Unlike Pete Carroll’s teams, when Jim Tressel loses, it is always to highly regarded teams.
However, the main critique is that, despite a spotless bowl record in Tressel’s first 4 seasons, he has not won one since – then again, two of those were against BCS top 2 teams and one against a highly regarded Texas team.
4. Bob Stoops (Oklahoma)
Bob Stoops teams dominate the Big 12, including Texas. But they choke in bowl games. Oklahoma counts bowl losses to inferior teams in Boise State and West Virginia. They also have three BCS losses in four tries, getting solidly beat in each game. Nobody has really been able to figure out how a team that can dominate in the regular season, cannot put together a decent game in a bowl. The only explanation is that possibly Oklahoma’s weak defenses have relied too heavily on high scoring offenses. There is one exception, which is the 2000 National Championship.
However, at the end of the day. Stoops recruits very well and has put together some highly regarded teams. He can be expected to get a team to a championship (in a tough conference) but not to win it.
Another flaw with Stoops is his lack of personal class. Unlike every other coach in my top 10, his comments are often offensive and ridiculous. He runs up the score on his opponents. He whines publicly when Oklahoma is not worshiped by the polls. This makes the university look bad, and hurts his ranking slightly.
5. Joe Paterno (Penn State)
Many might be surprised to see Paterno so high, others may not. But you cannot argue with his record and recent renaissance. He has the most wins in college football history. He is consistently competing for the Big Ten Championship and sometimes winning it. A nasty back-and-forth rivalry is developing with OSU. He has three National Championships and came close to it recently in ’05 and ’08. He has five undefeated seasons. He has 7 one-loss seasons. He is 23-11 in bowl games.
The biggest critique is that he is not really “coaching” anymore, but is rather a figurehead who has been called “a coach of coaches.” People have been saying for years that he has been too old to rebuild PSU, but somehow, he gets it done. The critique of his recent body of work is only this – failure to get over the hump. Losses to Michigan in ’05 (falling behind, literally as the clock ran out) and Iowa in ’08 (literally by a missed last-second field goal) probably cost him two chances at National Championships. These were very strong season regardless though.
6. Chris Petersen (Boise State)
You cannot question where this coach is in his career. He has been as impressive as any coach in all of football. He started at Boise as the offensive coordinator, and the team lost only one game each of those three years. Then he was promoted to head coach. In three seasons, Boise State has gone undefeated twice and beat Oklahoma in the ’06 Fiesta Bowl. All this in a place that is very difficult to recruit from.
The only question now is whether he can sustain such success. Word is that Boise is poised for another strong run with the vast majority of the team returning. Only question is how long he will remain at Boise.
The only critique is that Boise State plays in the WAC, which is a weak conference – but not that weak. However, Boise has played well outside the conference as well and, after beating Oklahoma, is respected by any team they play.
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Second Tier:
7. Mack Brown(Texas)
Mack is as respected as any coach in the game. But his body of work is missing some elements. He has only gotten over the hump once – a National Championship in ’05. Arguably, without Vince Young and a lot of luck, this could never have happened. His overall record at Texas is strong, and his teams can win any game.
But a weak record against main rival Oklahoma a loss to an inferior Texas Tech last year keep Mack from ascending much higher than 7.
I was tempted to put Brown in the first tier because, I think the three games against Ohio State speaks volumes. First, his team beats a very good OSU team and wins the National Championship. Then they lose to OSU and OSU goes on to only lose in the National Championship. Then in the '08 Fiesta Bowl, Texas and OSU go through one of the great games I have ever seen. A razor-thin finish in a brutal game. These games really showed that Texas can compete with anybody under Brown. However, Brown's team have never been great, they have just been really good without ever really cracking that barrier.
8. Nick Saban (Alabama)
Saban coaches well (at the college level) and has a National Championship. His record does not sparkle, but it is solid. The trust factor is still a question, given his turn in Miami. This always hurts recruiting…at first. Last season should take care of that problem. But everybody knows that Saban answers to the highest bidder and is not honest about it.
Last year, Alabama overachieved, losing only once in the SEC to eventual National Champion Florida in the SEC Championship. The loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl should never have happened, but the season was great despite this loss. The loss of Andre Smith was no excuse.
An outstanding recruiting season should put Alabama back in the National Championship picture.
9. Les Miles (LSU)
Honestly, I am not sure Miles deserves even this ranking. His only National Championship came during a season when there were absolutely no teams worthy of the title. His LSU Tigers became the only two-loss Champion ever. It beat an OSU program which was clearly in a rebuilding year and only got into the game due to losses by other teams. He didn’t even win the SEC title that season.
However, Miles is beloved at LSU and reports were strong that Michigan badly wanted him. After a five loss season, if he does not turn it around in 2009, I think he drops off the list altogether. However, expectations are that LSU will be a force next year.
10. Butch Davis (North Carolina)
This was a toss up with Frank Beamer. I moved Davis ahead because of his accomplishments at Miami exceed Beamer’s high points in his career. However, Beamer has had more sustained success. I see North Carolina rising, but Virginia Tech is likely to stay pretty steady in the future.
A colossal failure with the Cleveland Browns does not distract from Davis’s obvious college coaching ability. His one national championship is accentuated by a second place finish which arguably should have been first, and a Miami Hurricane Team made up of his recruits that went on a undefeated run through two seasons, including the ’01 National Championship, before finally losing the ’02 National Championship. His current North Carolina team finally earned some respect in ‘08, and is threatening to be a real competitor in the ACC in ’09.
11. Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech)
When Beamer took over at VT, the program had only been to 6 bowl games in over a century of play. Since then, he has taken them to 15 straight bowl games, including 5 BCS bowls.
The criticism comes from the fact that, despite winning games that they should win, they almost never seem to beat top ranked opponents. Beamer is 6-27 against top ten schools at VT. This program has come a long way, but despite coming so close, so many times, it is yet to get over the final hump of a full blown National Championship worthy season. By this point, it should have happened, especially since Miami has been weak for several years now.
12. Kyle Whittingham (Utah)
Whittingham had a pretty mediocre record till he finally put together an incredible team last year. In 2008, they went undefeated, beating 3 ranked teams and Michigan. They were incredible in beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, and were absolutely robbed of a share of the National Title.
The only question now is, where does he go from here? Most of last year’s team returns and Utah’s schedule includes some good teams again including a possibly very good Oregon and Louisville teams.
Whittingham’s lack of sustained success is his only critique. He will have chance to gain this over the next few years.
Third Tier:
13. Mike Leach (Texas Tech)
One good season last year, in which his team had a real shot, but performed pitifully against Oklahoma and in their bowl game is not enough to escape the second tier. But it is enough to earn respect, especially in a place that is hard to recruit from. I expect them to nag the Big 12 for several years, but I question whether Leach can get them over the hump. Had TT not beaten Texas last year, I doubt he would even have received anywhere near the hype he has gotten (we all know Oklahoma State’s coach didn’t).
14. Ron Zook (Illinois)
Ron Zook is a player’s coach. He was cast out of Gainesville despite the love of the players. The Illinois players seem to feel the same way, but the Illinois job does not have the same expectations as the Florida one. Despite this, Zook has brought new life to the program, and they have supported him with a badly needed new stadium. His recruiting has been extraordinary, so I expect Illinois to be a thorn in the side of the traditional Big Ten titans.
He has put together a competitor in Illinois. However, his incomprehensible play-calling at the ’07 Rose Bowl and lack-luster showing in the ’08 season leave many questions to be answered.
15. Brian Kelley (Cincinnati)
This ranking is quite high given just one great season, but Kelly has an amazing accomplishment in winning the Big East in ’08 with very little talent and losing quarterbacks three times. Is this a testament to a weak Big East, or strong Cincinnati? I think it was a little of the former, and a lot of the latter. Word is that he is in a position to sustain and build on that success. Cincinnati is a basketball school first, but has shown an interest in building a real football program in building a much-needed bigger stadium and practice facility. For Cincinnati, retaining Kelley will be costly but he may be worth it.
Honorable mention:
Dutch Meyer (TCU)
Jim Leavitt (USF)
Bobby Bowden (FSU)
Gary Pinkel (Missouri)
Mark Mangino (Kansas)
Dave Wanstadt (Pitt)
Tommy Tuberville (Former Auburn)
Houston Nutt (Ole’ Miss)
Rich Rodriguez (Michigan, but mentioned solely because of West Virginia)
I thought this article was so ridiculous, that I had to respond with a listing of my own. I can agree with the Urban Meyer ranking at number 1, but has he done it with his own recruits yet? No. Pete Carroll has and that is why he is number 1. It is really a shame that they did not face eachother last year.
Dienhart says “nobody can match Bob Stoops four BCS appearances.” This is absurd…Jim Tressel has been in 7 national championship games, with 3 BCS National Championship appearances…that matches it in my book. Not to mention Joe Paterno’s record matches it, which is discussed below.
Next, he puts Nick Saban at number 3. My comments on Saban are below. He has done nothing to justify a ranking higher than 8 for me. Dienhart’s selection of Kirk Ferentz (Iowa), Jim Grobe (Wake Forest) and Brian Kelly (Cincinnati) show that he is short sighted analyzing accomplishments. The Ferentz pick is particularly confusing, considering that Maine and Iowa have been merely mediocre at best under his term. Ferentz's one good season in 2002 was spoiled by ugly losses at Iowa State and a drubbing by USC in the Orange bowl. Then he put Chris Petersen, the most accomplished mid-major coach in the country - at 29. Baffling.
And his selection of putting Rich Rodriguez two spots over Jim Tressel is so ludicrous, that it is hardly worth addressing - but I will. Rodriguez was very good at West Virginia. However, unlike Tressel's team, Rodriguez's teams have never been able to get over the hump. West Virginia's loss to Pitt in 2007 was one of the most embarrassing failures to get over the hump that I have ever seen. In the most important game in school history, West Virginia lost to an inferior team that was playing with backups at key positions. After going on to beat a superior team in Oklahoma, the loss can only be blamed on coaching. Overcoming that one or two critical losses has always been something Rodriguez's teams have not been able to do. Futhermore, posting the worst season in Michigan's 150 year history did not look to good either. The inability to conform system to talent is something that is not a vice of Tressel's - as demonstrated by his spread offense of 2006.
I can only say, with all due respect, that I don't understand his rankings.
My Rankings:
My rankings are based upon 3 main factors, plus a few minor factors. First, is flat out winning across the board. This is mainly where I consider the entirety of a coach’s “body of work.” However, wins in college football can be misleading sometimes, because a team like USC or Oklahoma will beat 90% of the teams it faces based purely on talent. So that brings us to the second factor: winning against teams that can beat you. This includes mainly bowl games and rivalry games. I also take or give credit based on the consistent quality of performance regardless of wins or losses. Next, I adjust for the program support - a job at USC is inevitably easier to win with than Iowa. Lastly, is potential – i.e., who would you hire right now, to take over a sputtering program? Minor factors include, who has a consistently tough schedule, who can sustain that development for a long period of time with his own recruits, who can live up to or exceed expectations, and who can recruit.
My first tier is made up of coaches who are arguably the best in the nation. The second tier is made up of coaches, for whom, the argument for "best in the nation" is just too weak when compared with the first tier. The third tier is for coaches who are good, but on the verge of becoming great. The honorable mention is for coaches who simply deserve credit for what they have done.
First Tier:
1. Pete Carroll (USC)
Nobody compares to Pete Carroll right now. He just wins. In recruiting, he has been riding on his own coattails for years. He only loses recruits who feel they cannot beat the competition for a starting spot on the team. Otherwise, all players on the west coast go to Pete Carroll. He has coached several top-end teams that dominated, including an ’08 defense that may have been the best defense ever.
The main critique is that he coaches in a very weak Pac 10 Conference. However, this argument is moot, because even when he plays outside the Pac 10, he continues to win. The other critique is that USC has lost to one team it should have beat every year for three years now (UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State respectively). Losing to these kinds of inferior teams is a black mark that neither Urban Meyer, nor Jim Tressel have on their record. Each game cost USC a shot at the National Championship. The only retort is that his teams were incredible despite these losses, and almost any team would love to have three one-loss seasons.
His domination of the Big Ten in recent years has been obscene.
Tressell fans cannot complain about the superior ranking of Caroll, because Caroll's USC just blew out Tressel's OSU last year. Meyer fans cant complain because Meyer's success has not been as sustained as Carroll's, although it soon may be.
2. Urban Meyer (Florida)
Meyer was very good at Bowling Green. He then won the MWC in both of his years at Utah and went undefeated winning the Fiesta Bowl in the second season. Then he comes to Florida and wins two national championships in three years. The ’06 championship included a total domination of a one of the great Ohio State teams that had beat two #2 teams that season. He only is ranked higher than Jim Tressel because of this game, because his entire body of work is not really as deep as Tressel’s.
One might argue that Meyer should not be higher than Tressel by virtue of one game – however, this was more than a game. Tressel had one of the great teams in college history. He was capping off an incredible season and was expected to blow out Florida. Meyer beat him with a merely good team that was lucky to be in the Championship given that Michigan had a better body of work that season but may have only excluded because nobody wanted an OSU/Michigan National Championship.
Arguably, Meyer coaches in a tougher all around conference, although such statements are often extremely overstated. Another point: Meyer has never completely rebuilt a team on his own. This last challenge is what he needs to really complete his body of work. However, there is no doubt in my mind that he can do this. He will continue to compete for years, even in the tough SEC.
3. Jim Tressel (Ohio State)
Probably the best overall body of work of any coach is Tressel’s. However, he does not have any top-end, “best in history” type teams that Pete Carroll has. A horrible loss to Urban Meyer’s Florida in the ’06 National Championship costs him that one shot at such a team.
He has dominated the Big Ten. He has coached two 19 game winning streaks. He has been in National Championship games an unmatched 7 times (4 at Youngstown State and 3 at OSU). He won 5 of those games. He beat OSU’s rival Michigan 7 out of 8 games. Unlike Pete Carroll’s teams, when Jim Tressel loses, it is always to highly regarded teams.
However, the main critique is that, despite a spotless bowl record in Tressel’s first 4 seasons, he has not won one since – then again, two of those were against BCS top 2 teams and one against a highly regarded Texas team.
4. Bob Stoops (Oklahoma)
Bob Stoops teams dominate the Big 12, including Texas. But they choke in bowl games. Oklahoma counts bowl losses to inferior teams in Boise State and West Virginia. They also have three BCS losses in four tries, getting solidly beat in each game. Nobody has really been able to figure out how a team that can dominate in the regular season, cannot put together a decent game in a bowl. The only explanation is that possibly Oklahoma’s weak defenses have relied too heavily on high scoring offenses. There is one exception, which is the 2000 National Championship.
However, at the end of the day. Stoops recruits very well and has put together some highly regarded teams. He can be expected to get a team to a championship (in a tough conference) but not to win it.
Another flaw with Stoops is his lack of personal class. Unlike every other coach in my top 10, his comments are often offensive and ridiculous. He runs up the score on his opponents. He whines publicly when Oklahoma is not worshiped by the polls. This makes the university look bad, and hurts his ranking slightly.
5. Joe Paterno (Penn State)
Many might be surprised to see Paterno so high, others may not. But you cannot argue with his record and recent renaissance. He has the most wins in college football history. He is consistently competing for the Big Ten Championship and sometimes winning it. A nasty back-and-forth rivalry is developing with OSU. He has three National Championships and came close to it recently in ’05 and ’08. He has five undefeated seasons. He has 7 one-loss seasons. He is 23-11 in bowl games.
The biggest critique is that he is not really “coaching” anymore, but is rather a figurehead who has been called “a coach of coaches.” People have been saying for years that he has been too old to rebuild PSU, but somehow, he gets it done. The critique of his recent body of work is only this – failure to get over the hump. Losses to Michigan in ’05 (falling behind, literally as the clock ran out) and Iowa in ’08 (literally by a missed last-second field goal) probably cost him two chances at National Championships. These were very strong season regardless though.
6. Chris Petersen (Boise State)
You cannot question where this coach is in his career. He has been as impressive as any coach in all of football. He started at Boise as the offensive coordinator, and the team lost only one game each of those three years. Then he was promoted to head coach. In three seasons, Boise State has gone undefeated twice and beat Oklahoma in the ’06 Fiesta Bowl. All this in a place that is very difficult to recruit from.
The only question now is whether he can sustain such success. Word is that Boise is poised for another strong run with the vast majority of the team returning. Only question is how long he will remain at Boise.
The only critique is that Boise State plays in the WAC, which is a weak conference – but not that weak. However, Boise has played well outside the conference as well and, after beating Oklahoma, is respected by any team they play.
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Second Tier:
7. Mack Brown(Texas)
Mack is as respected as any coach in the game. But his body of work is missing some elements. He has only gotten over the hump once – a National Championship in ’05. Arguably, without Vince Young and a lot of luck, this could never have happened. His overall record at Texas is strong, and his teams can win any game.
But a weak record against main rival Oklahoma a loss to an inferior Texas Tech last year keep Mack from ascending much higher than 7.
I was tempted to put Brown in the first tier because, I think the three games against Ohio State speaks volumes. First, his team beats a very good OSU team and wins the National Championship. Then they lose to OSU and OSU goes on to only lose in the National Championship. Then in the '08 Fiesta Bowl, Texas and OSU go through one of the great games I have ever seen. A razor-thin finish in a brutal game. These games really showed that Texas can compete with anybody under Brown. However, Brown's team have never been great, they have just been really good without ever really cracking that barrier.
8. Nick Saban (Alabama)
Saban coaches well (at the college level) and has a National Championship. His record does not sparkle, but it is solid. The trust factor is still a question, given his turn in Miami. This always hurts recruiting…at first. Last season should take care of that problem. But everybody knows that Saban answers to the highest bidder and is not honest about it.
Last year, Alabama overachieved, losing only once in the SEC to eventual National Champion Florida in the SEC Championship. The loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl should never have happened, but the season was great despite this loss. The loss of Andre Smith was no excuse.
An outstanding recruiting season should put Alabama back in the National Championship picture.
9. Les Miles (LSU)
Honestly, I am not sure Miles deserves even this ranking. His only National Championship came during a season when there were absolutely no teams worthy of the title. His LSU Tigers became the only two-loss Champion ever. It beat an OSU program which was clearly in a rebuilding year and only got into the game due to losses by other teams. He didn’t even win the SEC title that season.
However, Miles is beloved at LSU and reports were strong that Michigan badly wanted him. After a five loss season, if he does not turn it around in 2009, I think he drops off the list altogether. However, expectations are that LSU will be a force next year.
10. Butch Davis (North Carolina)
This was a toss up with Frank Beamer. I moved Davis ahead because of his accomplishments at Miami exceed Beamer’s high points in his career. However, Beamer has had more sustained success. I see North Carolina rising, but Virginia Tech is likely to stay pretty steady in the future.
A colossal failure with the Cleveland Browns does not distract from Davis’s obvious college coaching ability. His one national championship is accentuated by a second place finish which arguably should have been first, and a Miami Hurricane Team made up of his recruits that went on a undefeated run through two seasons, including the ’01 National Championship, before finally losing the ’02 National Championship. His current North Carolina team finally earned some respect in ‘08, and is threatening to be a real competitor in the ACC in ’09.
11. Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech)
When Beamer took over at VT, the program had only been to 6 bowl games in over a century of play. Since then, he has taken them to 15 straight bowl games, including 5 BCS bowls.
The criticism comes from the fact that, despite winning games that they should win, they almost never seem to beat top ranked opponents. Beamer is 6-27 against top ten schools at VT. This program has come a long way, but despite coming so close, so many times, it is yet to get over the final hump of a full blown National Championship worthy season. By this point, it should have happened, especially since Miami has been weak for several years now.
12. Kyle Whittingham (Utah)
Whittingham had a pretty mediocre record till he finally put together an incredible team last year. In 2008, they went undefeated, beating 3 ranked teams and Michigan. They were incredible in beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, and were absolutely robbed of a share of the National Title.
The only question now is, where does he go from here? Most of last year’s team returns and Utah’s schedule includes some good teams again including a possibly very good Oregon and Louisville teams.
Whittingham’s lack of sustained success is his only critique. He will have chance to gain this over the next few years.
Third Tier:
13. Mike Leach (Texas Tech)
One good season last year, in which his team had a real shot, but performed pitifully against Oklahoma and in their bowl game is not enough to escape the second tier. But it is enough to earn respect, especially in a place that is hard to recruit from. I expect them to nag the Big 12 for several years, but I question whether Leach can get them over the hump. Had TT not beaten Texas last year, I doubt he would even have received anywhere near the hype he has gotten (we all know Oklahoma State’s coach didn’t).
14. Ron Zook (Illinois)
Ron Zook is a player’s coach. He was cast out of Gainesville despite the love of the players. The Illinois players seem to feel the same way, but the Illinois job does not have the same expectations as the Florida one. Despite this, Zook has brought new life to the program, and they have supported him with a badly needed new stadium. His recruiting has been extraordinary, so I expect Illinois to be a thorn in the side of the traditional Big Ten titans.
He has put together a competitor in Illinois. However, his incomprehensible play-calling at the ’07 Rose Bowl and lack-luster showing in the ’08 season leave many questions to be answered.
15. Brian Kelley (Cincinnati)
This ranking is quite high given just one great season, but Kelly has an amazing accomplishment in winning the Big East in ’08 with very little talent and losing quarterbacks three times. Is this a testament to a weak Big East, or strong Cincinnati? I think it was a little of the former, and a lot of the latter. Word is that he is in a position to sustain and build on that success. Cincinnati is a basketball school first, but has shown an interest in building a real football program in building a much-needed bigger stadium and practice facility. For Cincinnati, retaining Kelley will be costly but he may be worth it.
Honorable mention:
Dutch Meyer (TCU)
Jim Leavitt (USF)
Bobby Bowden (FSU)
Gary Pinkel (Missouri)
Mark Mangino (Kansas)
Dave Wanstadt (Pitt)
Tommy Tuberville (Former Auburn)
Houston Nutt (Ole’ Miss)
Rich Rodriguez (Michigan, but mentioned solely because of West Virginia)
Thursday, December 4, 2008
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